Roger Federer's tense five-set victory over Stan Wawrinka brings us now three-quarters of the way to one of the most wonderfully improbable sports stories of the last several years. Were you to script the dream scenario for the finals of the Australian Open, you'd end up with Serena vs. Venus in the women's final and Roger vs. Rafa in the men's. Should Rafa beat Dimitrov tonight, that scenario will come true.
(Given the current quality of Rafa's play and his far greater experience in the biggest matches, expect Rafa to do his part to bring the scenario to fruition.)
How improbable was it? Well, no one is surprised to see Serena in the final. But the others? Venus, now 36 years old, hasn't been in a Grand Slam final since 2009. Roger is seeded 17th and is coming off a six-month injury layoff. Rafa is seeded 9th and has been out with injury as well. All three of them needed to beat top players in multiple matches to make it this far.
Dare I preview the finals?
Serena seems to play because of some deep sense of obligation to her talent, that being anything less than unequivocally the best ever is a betrayal of some sort. Her talent seems almost as much burden as gift. But she's playing terrific tennis, having totally overwhelmed everyone she's thus far faced.
Venus, on the other hand, seems to be playing for the sheer joy of it. Prior to the Venus-Vandeweghe match, I said I couldn't imagine Venus bring her utmost to deny her baby sister her record-breaking twenty-third major. But after the unself-consciously overwhelmed exuberance of her celebration after beating Coco, I think otherwise. Serena has to be seen as the heavy favorite, but I'd love to see Venus get the win.
I'm assuming Rafa will indeed beat Dimitrov. And, as much as it pains me to say it, I think Rafa will end up beating Roger in the final. Ever since Rafa first burst onto the scene, he has been Roger's kryptonite. The match against Stan showed that Roger is either not fully 100% yet or simply doesn't have the strength to overcome someone hitting heavy balls to his backhand, which Rafa will surely do again and again and again and again. I'm a huge Federer fan and would love to see him get his 18th, but I have to see Rafa as the heavy favorite.