The Men
After a season that started like a dream, one of the greatest seasons the game has ever seen--Federer vs. Nadal in the Australian Open final, then Federer's swing through the North American hard-court spring, then Nadal's clay-court season, then Federer's season on grass--we've seen things kind of fall apart in the weeks since Wimbledon. The rash of injuries at the top of the game have taken a lot of the shine out of the Open. Djokovic shut his season down after Wimbledon, citing a wrist injury. Wawrinka had surgery on his knee and is out. Nishikori is out with a wrist injury. Raonic is out with a wrist injury. And yesterday, Murray pulled out, his troublesome kip finally being too much to deal with. That's a gaping set of holes in the draw.
All of this might be swept under the rug if Federer and Nadal are healthy and go deep. But Federer's back injury in the final of Montreal is worrisome. Injuries in the core being very hard to heal, how likely is Federer to get through seven matches of best-of-five tennis in New York's summertime heat without a recurrence? That's a lot to ask of the body if it isn't truly 100% going in.
So can we at least rely on Nadal? Hard to say. It's deep in the season now, and Nadal has a lot of tennis in his body for the year. But when it comes to best-of-five on slower courts, it's hard to put Nadal behind anybody except perhaps top-of-their-games Djokovic and Murray--neither of whom is playing.
With Federer and Nadal on the same side of the draw, thus dashing the marketers' and many fans dreams of a Federer-Nadal final, that means that someone besides one of them is going to make the final. Most of the players whom I'd consider top contenders are in the Nadal-Federer half of the draw. So who looks possible to make a deep run in the bottom half? Cilic, the five-seed, has been struggling with injury. Tsonga, seeded eighth, could make a run. Jack Sock, the 13-seed, has played some very good tennis this year. But no one in that half of the draw has played with anything like the fire of Sasha Zverev.
Last year during my trip to the Open, I watched both of Sasha's matches. He put on a rather petulant performance against Daniel Brands on his way to a four-set win, and then lost in four to Dan Evans in the second round. Sasha has matured greatly since then and has become different caliber player. He's yet to have his breakthrough in best-of-five and, at 20 years old, is clearly still improving. But he was furiously good in Washington and Montreal earlier this month, before the accumulated fatigue overwhelmed him Cincinnati. He's demonstrated that he can beat the best--he was outplaying Federer in Montreal even before Federer's injury. The pressure on him is very great, but it would be wonderful to see him make the most of this opportunity.
(As an aside, the Zverev-Evans match was the most memorable match of my trip last year. They played late into the night on tiny, tiny Court 4. It's safe to bet that Sasha won't be playing on Court 4 this year.)
The Women
If the men's draw is more open than usual because of all the players missing with injury, the women's draw is open because that's how the women's game is when Serena isn't around.
Here are the top nine seeds on the women's side:
- Pliskova
- Halep
- Muguruza
- Svitolina
- Wozniacki
- Kerber
- Konta
- Kuznetsova
- V. Williams
Let's go ahead and presume that we're not going to see a particularly deep run from reigning champ Angelique Kerber. She's been a shell of the player we saw win two majors last season. With no wins against anyone in the top twenty all season, there's every reason to think she'll make an early exit here.
With her out of the way, let's discuss the remaining eight in the top nine, and a few others besides.
Simona Halep, still just 25 years old, has seemed since her break-up and subsequent reconciliation with coach Darren Cahill back in the spring, like she's poised for a breakthrough--and then she gets in her head and falls apart. She really struggles to close--in important matches, and in important tournaments. That she lost one-and-love to Mugu in Cincinnati suggests, again, that she isn't quite ready to make the leap in her mental/emotional game to show up at her very best for the biggest matches.
She drew the single most interesting match, men's or women's, for her first-round match: she'll be playing Maria Sharapova. It's entirely possible that Halep won't even make the second round, much less make a deep run. On the other hand, a strong performance against Maria could give her some useful momentum after what happened in Cincinnati.
Number-one seed Karolina Pliskova was a finalist here last year and has been consistent but not overwhelming throughout the year. On the other hand, she holds the top seed without having even made a final in a Slam this year. She's a strong player, and would surely love to make a deep run here, but it's hard to look at her as the favorite.
So who is? Surely it is Muguruza who has taken over that role. It's a bit surprising to say that, after where she was just a few short months ago at Roland Garros, when she melted down under the pressure and looked like she simply didn't have the tools right now to be a serious contender for another major. But then she won Wimbledon, made the semis (losing to Madison Keys) at Stanford, made the quarters in Toronto (losing to Svitolina), then in Cincinnati beat Keys, Kuznetsova, and Pliskova on her way to the final, before demolishing Halep to take the title. Her losses have come against good players, and her wins have been very strong. She's looking like she finally decided to shoulder the burden of being a top player. In her current form, she has to be seen as the favorite here.
Elina Svitolina still feels like something of a wild card (in the colloquial rather than tennis sense). Her play has been pretty consistent all season. She's only 22 years old. She won in Rome and Toronto this year, showing that she's competitive up to the highest levels of the sport--but she's never made it beyond the third round at the US Open. Will this be the year in which she goes deeper?
Wozniacki has been strong but not amazing this season. She plays some matches like she's on her way back to championship caliber, but then there are matches like the final of the Rogers Cup in Toronto against Svitolina, when she fought gamely through most of the first set, lost it, and then simply got demolished in the second. Based on her consistent inconsistency, it seems unlikely that she's going to be able to string together the seven solid matches it takes to hoist the trophy in New York.
Jo Konta, the number-seven seed, is an interesting case. She's become a solid player, capable of beating anybody playing. Her power makes her impossible to write off.
Kuznetsova has been rather under the radar. She made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, the 2nd round at Toronto, and the quarterfinals in Cincinnati. She's too good to ignore, but hard to take seriously as an actual contender.
And then there's Venus Williams. She's 37 years old now. She made the finals at both the Australian and Wimbledon. She's too good and too experienced to ignore as a possible contender here. On the other hand, she's at her best on faster courts than we're likely to see in New York (though we'll see if that proves true--no one expected the Australian to play quite as fast as it did), and in each of her Slam finals this year, she showed that she doesn't quite maintain her mental game at its highest in every match, especially the toughest matches. I shouldn't have been surprised by her lack of presence against Serena in the Australian final--we've seen enough times that she doesn't like playing her sister that it should have been expected--but her utter capitulation against Mugu in the final of Wimbledon still completely baffles me. She's classy as hell though, and it would be profoundly cool to see her make another deep run in New York.
Other players to watch: Madison Keys, certainly. Jelena Ostapenpo, who still has me shaking my head and smiling over her play on her way to her victory at Roland Garros. CoCo Vandeweghe. Petra Kvitova, still on the comeback trail. And, as we saw at Roland Garros, there's plenty of reason to think that any other number of players--maybe anyone in the top fifty?--could make a serious run here.
Gotta be excited for this one. Expect a fun tournament. Oh, and there are eight players with a chance to hold world-number-one after the Open: everyone in the top nine except for Kerber. Here's a fascinating little wrinkle: if the final ends up being the one and two seeds, Halep and Pliskova, and Pliskova ends up winning, Halep still leaves the Open as the new number one. Rolling rankings can create some interesting occurrences, eh?