So what's happened in the first round so far:
Sharapova beat Halep 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. The tennis writers I follow on Twitter said it had all the quality and intensity of a final. I was on the road and so haven't seen it yet, but today's rainouts have opened up some time.
Related: a question I've been interested in and hope to explore in some writing this week: when is it worth watching a sporting event if you already know the outcomes?
I said Jo Konta was capable of beating anyone in the field. She lost.
I declared Jack Sock as worth mentioning when I discussed the players with a shot of coming out of the bottom half of the draw. He lost.
Headline writers are calling Naomi Osaka's win over Kerber an upset. To which I respond: please. Kerber is a shell of herself. She got blown off the court.
If she's wise, she'll take the rest of the season off. I have no idea if there's anything clearly measurable about how differently she's playing this year compared to last, that is, if modern advanced statistical techniques would demonstrate what's changed, but it's clear that a) she's mentally barely present and b) hasn't quite accepted just how burned out she really is. Maybe the humiliation of going from defending champ to first-round loser might open her eyes.